What do the Numbers in the Press about the Property Market Actually Mean?

Halifax.co.uk (6 December 2024) … “Uk House prices” up 1.3% in November with the annual increase 4.8%.  But note: these statistics are just from the Halifax Mortgage database, not the whole market

Meanwhile Nationwide.co.uk reported a1.2% month on month increase in November and 3.7% annual increase. (Annual increase about 22% less than Halifax!)  

Note: These figures are based solely on Nationwide lending for owner -occupied houses. 

Propertyreporter.co.uk (2 December) interpreted the Nationwide figures above and reported

 “… Annual house price growth soared …in November” …  This is not how I would interpret these statistics nor the actual market.

Rightmove.co.uk report average asking prices down 1.4% monthly and up 1.2% annually in November   They can only base their statistics on asking prices (Average asking price in November from their data £366,592). They also predict a 4% increase in asking prices in 2025.  

Asking prices generally provide an early indication of the trend in the market notwithstanding the fact that some vendors and, I am afraid, some Agents, even now are still not being realistic about the market and property value.

The only true set of statistics on the general Housing Market comes from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) which uses a House Price Index based on figures from HM Land Registry for all property sales ( cash or mortgage) in England.  Even this is not straight forward as there is an inevitable delay of several months from the date a property sale is agreed to the date the sale goes through and is registered.

In November 2024 The ONS reported that the average house price in England had increased by 2.5% in the 12 months to September 2024 to £309,000.  (Approx 16% less than the average asking price figure used in the recent Rightmove press release) Confused?  A lot of people are.  That’s why it’s more important than ever that you chose an Agent who understands the market and has the knowledge and experience to devise a bespoke marketing strategy for your property to maximise its value.  In a nutshell, in a slower market you need a good Agent to get good results. And remember the quote that may or may not have been attributed to Mark Twain or British PM Benjamin Disraeli:

                                “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” 

e.o.e. For full information about the statistics above please visit the respective websites