Analysis of 2024 Crystal Balling 2025

Overall the market did not show much enthusiasm in 2024. There were a number of factors choking the market and of course every month saw a slight change to the positive or negative. In summary:

January was subdued, likely to be exhaustion from the endless rain of the autumn and winter, this tends to keep buyers tucked up at home without an appetite to view.

February, March and the first half of April saw an energised market where buyers, fuelled by the price war from the High Street lenders in late January, secured some excellent rates and property purchases. There was a rate rise from the High Street lenders in March that took a little froth off activity.

Mid April – May the market slowed dramatically as the High Street lenders raised rates again, which seemed nonsensical as the general media fed opinion was the base rate would start to decline this year rather than increase. There was apathy amongst buyers who felt it was prudent to wait until the base rate reduced, which seemed imminent, and secure a better mortgage rate.

May- Beginning of July, the election took any wind left in the sails in the property market. Buyers absolutely did not want to engage unless it was to pick off desperate sellers and ‘fire sales’. I noted some properties selling at what I considered exceptionally low prices.

Uncertainty is the kryptonite of the property market and whilst the Conservative Government was unpopular, people were questioning if they really wanted a Labour government. The lack of a clear way forward caused the electorate to pause large purchase decisions. The announcement of the Labour landslide on just 33.7% vote share, the lowest than any other election since 1832, was a shock to many, but the decision was made.

Mid July – Mid October; The buyers crept out of the undergrowth tentatively post-election and energy returned to the market which resulted in a busy August and brisk September, only for it to dissipate again with the impending Budget.

Post Budget – The first-time buyer sector of the market has seen a marked uptick in activity and sales agreed, no doubt fuelled by the withdrawal of FTB relief on stamp duty in April 2025. 

So to 2025 – If anyone could accurately predict future property market activity, they would be lying on a yacht in the Caribbean sipping cocktails rather than writing market comments in the national media. However, the nation’s obsession with house prices keeps the commentators busy! So, my penny’s worth, its December 18^th and the market is still active, surprisingly active for December; this is rare. We are enjoying enquires and viewings on houses from £500,000 - £2,000,000. This is great news. To see this level of market engagement at a notoriously quiet time of year is indicating the market is ready for a reboot. I expect January will be the barometer for the rest of the year. This past year is very similar to 2019 in many ways and 2020 started briskly in the property market with lots of buyers returning to the market, well before the surge of property transactions post lockdown. My belief is, save for any unforeseen global events,  2025 will echo 2020. Buyers who paused moving decisions this year will have a better appetite this year and the softening of the base rate will encourage this further. I cannot foresee a marked rise in prices though, moreover a return to ‘normalised transaction levels’, which across Wiltshire, Somerset and Dorset have reduced as much as 40%* during 2024 compared to the previous year.

The market is terribly fickle so its always advisable asking the FG team from time to time what the market is up to locally rather than relying on the national viewpoint in the tabloids. As always, we are more than happy to help because of course, we are no different to anyone else, and equally obsessed with the property market! I can honestly say in over 30 years of selling property, there has never been a dull moment.

 

*Home.co.uk transactions recorded by Land Registry